Estimation of the Saber 11 Test: Review of Structural Changes between 2014 and 2022 at the General Santander Educational Institution

Abstract

Standardized assessments, such as the Saber 11 test, play a crucial role in both individual and institutional decision-making in the educational field. In response to the constant changes of the pedagogical models, these tests are adapted to cover a broader range of cognitive skills and reflect the diverse capacities of students. Objective: This study aims to analyze the structural change in student performance in the Saber 11 test, in the period between 2014 and 2022, focusing on the year 2016 as a potential turning point at the General Santander Educational Institution in the municipality of Soacha, Cundinamarca. Methodology: The Chow test – a statistical tool that evaluates whether the coefficients in two linear regressions applied to two data sets are equivalent – was applied. Results: The analysis revealed that, on the one hand, the areas of critical reading and English experienced a significant structural change in 2016. On the other hand, mathematics, social studies, civic competencies and natural sciences did not present structural changes in the same period. Conclusion: Performance on the Saber 11 test showed an improvement between 2014 and 2016, followed by stagnation and even a decline in subsequent years. A slight upturn was anticipated in 2022, although still far from the levels reached in 2016. It is estimated that it will take at least five more years to return to the performance level of that year.